Description: The NASA SBIR subtopic, S14.01 Space Weather R2O2R, discusses key risks associated with space weather effects, including risks posed to spacecraft, crew, telecommunications, satellite systems, and position, navigation, and timing services. The Heliophysics Division is seeking innovative approaches to better understand, monitor, predict and mitigate space weather impacts. Area 1 of the subtopic description expresses a need for solutions that enable the characterization and prediction of ionospheric variability, including improved forecasting of ionospheric scintillation. Area 3 of the subtopic description explains BASA’s desire for innovative data assimilation and integration tools for the operational space-weather community. Orion’s ISIP.AI tool will address both of these critical needs by improving low latitude scintillation nowcasting and forecasting with an innovative machine-learning approach. Ionospheric scintillation is the rapid fluctuations in phase (σφ) and amplitude (S4) experienced by radio signals (up to 2 GHz) propagating through ionospheric irregularities. While scintillation severity varies, in the most severe case scintillation can make it impossible for a GNSS receiver to calculate a position. Currently, there are no reliable tools to forecast or nowcast ionospheric scintillation for a given communication link. ISIP.AI will be a first-of-its-kind tool that can improve the reliability of ground-to-space communication links by nowcasting and forecasting low-latitude scintillation. This capability can ultimately help NASA mitigate risks associated with mission-ending scintillation disruptions.

Benefits: Without reliable models for nowcasting or forecasting, the SWORM Working Group, Artemis missions, and other Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate programs lack the necessary data to provide operational products for the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities and resulting scintillation. These gaps in reliable scintillation data increase risks of communication disruptions during daily NASA operations such as communicating with the ISS. ISIP.AI’s innovative approach can help NASA mitigate these risks.

The DoD is budgeting $2.5 billion for PTS satellites and a ground system called PTES. Other agencies such as NOAA will also be interested in ISIP.AI’s scintillations nowcasts and forecasts. Additionally, private space companies would be interested in scintillation forecasts to adjust their downlink schedules to avoid missed communications.