Description: Due to the number of objects in orbit around Earth, NASA and the US Government need an upgraded operational capability to meet stringent Space Situational Awareness satellite trajectory accuracy requirements for many missions, including conjunction analysis. More accurate drag modeling will increase the safety margin and decrease false alarms, improving mission management, while maintaining rigorous safety standards. We propose a Space Weather specification & forecasting approach that potentially leads to both more accurate nowcasts of satellite drag and the quantification of orbital uncertainties in LEO altitude ranges (up to ~2,000 km), as well as 2- to 3-day forecasts of atmospheric drag effects on satellites. Dragster - a TRL 5 ensemble assimilative model developed by Orion Space Solutions, with SBIR and internal funding, provides such a drag model. The Dragster software framework delivers a comprehensive nowcast and forecast system for neutral density, winds, temperature, composition and satellite drag along any specified orbit. The current operational drag models do not satisfy operational satellite drag forecasting objectives. Validation studies have shown that Dragster already equals or outperforms the operational models and has the potential to meet drag specification and forecasting objectives out to 2,000 km for the first time. Dragster is currently at a NASA Software TRL level of 5. It is ready for transition to higher TRL levels and operational status. The focus of this Phase II R2O/O2R effort is to increase the Dragster TRL to 8, taking advantage of modern software tools and practices, and prepare it for transition to operations. NASA/CCMC and NOAA/SWPC are our target transition partners. NASA/CARA, NOA/SWPC, Space Force and various commercial entities will be the ultimate operational users.

Benefits: NASA needs more accurate orbital and sub-orbital collision avoidance modeling up to 2000km. Using modern software tools and techniques the Dragster SSA technology is useful to NASA in multiple ways. Through a close relationship with CCMC/SWRC the computed neutral density, drag and uncertainty values could be assimilated into the CARA Operational Process. Dragster can utilize a variety of background models and assimilate orbital data sets that can be tailored to specific stakeholders and missions in ways that protect privacy and security.

Our innovative neutral atmosphere drag modeling framework called Dragster has strong commercial potential in the Space Traffic Management market. It is well suited for both U.S. Government and private sector applications, including the Department of Commerce, DoD, and commercial companies, which have interest in orbital drag, and space debris avoidance.