Solar Update Neural Network for Improved Event Prediction (SUNNIE)
Status: Completed
Start Date: 2024-08-07
End Date: 2025-02-06
Description: Several NASA Heliophysics models have been developed to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) events. As presented in the CCMC model catalog, most of these are either physics-based or empirical models with very few models utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques. However, none of the existing models leverage the combined power of physics models and ML: Physics informed neural networks (PINNs). To the best of our knowledge, there currently exists no PINN implementation of 3D time-dependent Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and there currently does not exist a PINN surrogate model for physics-based CCMC models, specifically, WSA-ENLIL-cone model. P3P proposes to build a Solar Update Neural Network for Improved Event prediction (SUNNIE) that leverages the cutting edge in Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) architecture to enhance NASA's CCMC models for Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event forecasting by integrating underlying numerical solvers directly into the training cycle. This will enhance SEP event predictability via higher spatial and temporal resolution, while requiring fewer data points and thereby also reducing computational footprint. The implementation of SUNNIE offers significant benefits for a wide range of applications, from improving satellite and spacecraft safety to aiding in the strategic planning of space missions. By providing a more nuanced and accurate view of space weather events, SUNNIE aims to be an indispensable tool for agencies like NASA and the US Space Force, ensuring that space operations can be conducted more safely and effectively in the face of unpredictable solar activity.
Benefits: The SUNNIE technology has immediate application in space weather forecasting, in particular for providing NASA with advanced warnings about solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other solar phenomena, which aligns with, for example, the Living With a Star program's initiative to provide critical data for understanding solar activity and improving space weather forecasting. Most if not all of NASA's directives for space exploration and habitation require enhanced space weather forecasting. This includes applications in satellite operations and protection, astronaut safety, and communications and navigation systems.The proposed approach to space weather forecasting will improve spatiotemporal resolution and overcome computational limitations of current implementations of numerical methods such the existing NASA CCMC models. Such technology can extend beyond space weather forecasting and would benefit everything from plasma-controlled nuclear fusion to weather modeling. SUNNIE will also enhance the operational safety, communication reliability, and navigational precision of the US Space Force. Improved solar event predictions means that potential disruptions to satellite communications, vital for military operations and global connectivity, can be anticipated and mitigated ensuring communication links remain robust and reliable.
Lead Organization: Phase III Physics LLC