Description: The Monitor for Airport and Network Operational Risk (MANOR) aims to be a single source for integrating multiple sources of data to monitor and forecast combinations of conditions at major airports that generate operational risk. MANOR monitors and forecasts operating conditions at individual airports and captures interactions with other airports through an Airport Dependency Index. MANOR aims to address traffic flow disruptions from demand-capacity imbalances by focusing on factors that interrupt schedule execution and efficient operations. MANOR does not address the detailed considerations that go into flight planning, such as airport elevation, airport opening and closing times, and certification for CAT III landings. MANOR consists of two components: Airport Operational Risk Component monitors and forecasts each airport for potential exposure to disruptive factors and provides estimates of those impacts. Airport Dependency Model Network Component addresses network effects and identifies the impacts on airport efficiency due to upstream and downstream effects from other airports. Together, these components provide operators and the FAA a comprehensive decision support system to monitor the overall operational status of the NAS and provide detailed insight into potential operational risks for individual airports. The system provides current status on the most recent data sources and forecasts up to 15 hours in advance. Different forecast models will offer different forecast periods depending on the value of an extended forecast and the accuracy of the forecast method. For example, MANOR will provide hourly arrival rate forecast probabilities 15 hours in advance. This offers an airline dispatch manager coming on duty at 0600 an extended perspective on the possible operational challenges for that day. The dispatch manager coming on duty for the overnight shift will have access to forecasts for the following day to support planning for the next day.

Benefits: The NASA Digital Information Platform (DIP) subproject signed on to a technically challenging set of milestones for data gathering, processing, integration, and distribution. MANOR offers a suite of services that could be delivered to users through the DIP Platform. Although this would not provide Robust Analytics with any direct revenue over the next couple of years, the DIP Platform will provide opportunities to work with operators and receive feedback on our offerings. NASA funding opportunities with the DIP Subproject are also possible as MANOR can contribute directly to the DIP mission. The Phase I prototype for ATL will demonstrate three important features of the DIP concept: 1. Cloud-based infrastructure that takes data from many sources and turns it into easily accessible, easy-to-use digital information 2. Support data-driven models to enable scalable and adaptable services 3. Advanced services to increase efficiency and predictability and support disruption management Robust Analytics is an active participant in the Digital Information Platform subproject and is currently in the process of publishing an initial set of services to the platform. The first service is a 15-hour runway configuration prediction service for ATL. Other airports will be added later in 2024. Other services planned for the DIP Platform are 15-hour runway capacity forecasts for over a dozen airports and safety monitoring and safety margin prediction. Our intent is to register MANOR services on the Platform, provide direct contribution to the NASA mission, and use that opportunity to collaborate with operators and accelerate our commercialization achievements.Dispatchers use the aircraft situation display (ASD) and related flight planning tools to plan and monitor individual flights and the execute as best as possible the airline schedule. Although these tools present information on potential operational risks, they present them as isolated data items and do not place them in the context of interdependent arrival and departure banks. The dispatcher relies on memory to track the status of many factors, while simultaneously generating flight plans for dozens of flights and monitoring the safe progress of dozens of airplanes in the air. The wide range of planning and monitoring tasks, coupled with lengthy timelines, make it challenging for dispatchers to make use of the potentially valuable information embedded in their input data streams. Based on our problem understanding derived from airline discussions, Robust Analytics developed the MANOR concept to address the lack of comprehensive insight into potential airport disruptions from all the possible causes. The system objectives are: 1. Develop predictive models that give several hours of advance warning when operations at busy airports may degrade. 2. Avoid any solution that requires connecting hardware and software to airline information technology systems. 3. Prioritize solutions for the busiest hub airports as these are the most impacted when airport operations are disrupted. In meetings from July 2022 to February 2023, three airlines told us their top priority was improved operational efficiency at their busiest airports. Achieving that objective was hampered by uncertainties in forecasting airport conditions over the next several hours. Airlines lack the resources to develop new tools, even when they know they need them. Investment funding is limited, so we designed MANOR and our other airline decision support tools to operate as web applications. As such, they do not require installation inside the airline and require no hardware or software installation.