Description: A key component to solving many engineering challenges of UAS integration into the National Airspace System is the ability to state the numbers of forecasted UAS by airframe and mission/operation type being performed within discrete airspaces. The UAS Demand Generator for Discrete Airspace Density (UAXPAN) is a cloud-based application producing UA demand forecasts from user defined scenarios consisting of: UAS, industry, missions, and forecast elements. In Phase I, UAXPAN was developed as a prototype to demonstrate Government and commercial UAS operations. In Phase II, the overall project objective is to enhance the UAXPAN system to allow users and governance groups to start actively adding UAS missions, forecasting UAS growth, and assessing the impact of UAS operations in different areas. The collected data can then be shared with other users seeking to perform assessments of impact or demand and to optimize the crowd sourced input in a cloud-based hosting approach to receive feedback. This will be accomplish by developing UAXPAN as a full system and testing this system as a Beta Operation, designing and developing a user friendly wizard forecast system, and conducting research and analysis on communications and spectrum planning, ATC loading, and environmental impacts of noise and atmospheric emissions.

Benefits: UAXPAN is an innovative concept for a UAS Demand Generator that is directly related to fostering NASA's achieving results in driving UAS integration in the NAS. Our UAS demand forecast system will provide valuable input to the R&D being performed by the NASA UAS Program. The Control & Communications Project (NASA GRC) and the Certification & Safety Project (NASA LaRC) will directly benefit by having the number of UAS forecasted operations soundly based upon real world constraint knowledge and industry SMEs – and based upon industry markets, UAS types, use by mission, and discrete airspace classes associated with geographical location and time. This forecast data is needed to validate the communication systems engineering work on channel bandwidth sizing, signal-in-space specification (especially for shared channel access techniques) and for planning of spectrum reuse. Without this UAS demand data the selection of differing approaches to form consensus on standards for civil aviation will be delayed. The UAXPAN project will also be essential in the development of another NASA emerging project for the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) System which is targeted to enable low-altitude civilian applications of UAS. The UTM will greatly benefit from accurate forecast of planned UAS use in low altitudes as input data to traffic flow and control simulations.

The UAS demand tool, UAXPAN, will provide valuable forecast data to non-NASA users in the Federal Government (FAA, DHS, DOT, EPA, DoA, DoI), Armed Services, state and local governments, universities, standards organizations (RTCA, ICAO, AEEC, AUVSI, JARUS) and defense and commercial business. All these organizations need to support investment planning, perform engineering, determine market needs, or establish international standards and agreements based upon the projected use of UAS which goes beyond just having aggregated U.S. totals. The U.S Congress is driving the introduction of UAS through the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2012 and their staff would be able to benefit from UAS projections by industry and governing domains. UAXPAN will also be the source of analytics and projection data that can be offered to users through the emerging "big data" businesses. These firms are offering aviation system information to operational research staffs of major airlines or airport operators for the purpose enhancing operation effectiveness.