Description: The Automated Real-Time Clearance Analyzer (ARCA) automates safety assessment of ATC decisions and can operate orders of magnitude faster (and on a wider range of information) than a human. ARCA's core algorithms mirror human safety assessments so that decision analyses are comprehendible on inspection and can be calibrated with experience and observation. Furthermore, ARCA archives operational data as it operates in the field, giving it increasingly better information from which to learn and make increasingly more accurate safety assessments. ARCA uses a Bayesian network to determine the estimated probabilities of incidents and accidents. ARCA's operational safety assessments are objectively linked to hard data. As in any estimation (human or automated), there are always uncertainties. However, ARCA does not rely on any heuristics or subjective integration algorithms. The assessments it produces are objective and quantitatively defensible based on its growing archive of operational information. This is a highly desirable characteristic of trusted automation.

Benefits: ARCA will be well-positioned to integrate with NASA's SMART-NAS Testbed to provide a demonstration system in support of NASA's Real-time System-wide Safety Assurance Strategic Thrust. ARCA technology can serve a centerpiece of future automated ATC research and development. ARCA technology can also be embedded into vehicle control platforms, starting with manned flight decks (as decision support) and large UAS (working toward autonomous decision-making).

For air carriers ARCA can provide a post-flight approach analysis tool. This tool will allow air carriers to continually analyze the safety of the approaches flown and identify and analyze points during the approach where the risk level was high or unacceptable. ARCA would be complementary to and a cheaper alternative to Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA). For the FAA the near-term potential of ARCA is as post operations safety analysis tool similar to the tool that would be sold to the air carriers. The primary difference in capability is that the FAA would not necessarily have access to crew experience unless it was provided through an existing safety program. In addition to a standalone safety analysis tool, ARCA could be a future add-on to the FAA's DVARS program.